APRIL 24
Predictable Supply
The Money Schedule You Can See Coming
The Signal
Bitcoin’s future supply follows a schedule anyone can check. Fiat money does not.
The Reading
Imagine knowing today how much new money can be created decades from now. With Bitcoin, you can. New bitcoin enters through mining. The block subsidy is 3.125 bitcoin today. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, that subsidy halves again.At Bitcoin’s target pace of about 144 blocks a day, the annualised flow keeps shrinking:
2024–28: about 164,000 BTC.
2028–32: about 82,000.
2032–36: about 41,000.
2036–40: about 20,500.
2040–44: about 10,300.
2044–48: about 5,100.
2048–52: about 2,600.
2052–56: about 1,300.
The exact calendar dates can move because blocks do not arrive every ten minutes exactly. But the rule is fixed: tick-tock, next block. Every 210,000 blocks, issuance is cut in half. That is the opposite of fiat money.
With dollars, there is no fixed schedule showing exactly how many new dollars will exist in 2040 or 2050. Central banks change policy, governments borrow and spend, and commercial-bank lending can create new deposits. The supply responds to economic and policy decisions rather than a predetermined monetary rule. Over time, fiat money supply has generally expanded. Its purchasing power can therefore be diluted when money grows faster than the goods and services people want to buy.
A positive inflation target means prices are expected to rise over time, reducing what each dollar can buy. Bitcoin follows the opposite path: new issuance keeps shrinking by design. Bitcoin removes that discretion from its issuance schedule. No minister, central banker, company or miner can simply decide to create another million bitcoin. The shrinking supply path was known years ago and can still be checked today. Demand remains uncertain. Price remains uncertain. Supply does not. That is why predictable supply matters.
First Principles
Bitcoin’s issuance follows a predetermined schedule.
Every 210,000 blocks, new supply is cut in half.
Fiat supply can change through policy and credit creation; Bitcoin’s issuance cannot be expanded by decision.
Today’s Challenge
Take sixteen coins. Put them in front of you. Now halve the pile: eight, four, two, one.
Do not add any more. You already know exactly what the next pile will be before you make it.That is predictable supply.
Tomorrow’s Signal
Why 21 Million Matters